The purchase of $8 billion of deposit from securities “Brother One” sent a signal to us

2022-04-26 0 By

Today, I welcomed the heavy snow in Beijing in the year of tiger after the 2022 Chinese New Year holiday. Many people in the community went out of their homes and had snowball fights in the community to feel the beautiful scenery brought by the cold weather.On Friday (Feb 11 evening), Citic Securities announced that it had signed A deposit deal with Huaxia Bank to purchase three fixed term deposits, totaling 8 billion yuan.Citic Securities all chose the return type of break-even, and the expected annualized return rate/deposit interest rate is 2.28%, and the total expected return amount is 36.6067 million yuan.The specific announcement is as shown in the figure below: “Citic Securities”, the top securities company, purchased 8 billion yuan of short-term risk-free deposit products at this time, which was considered by many as A measure to deal with the poor performance of the current A-share market. It was believed that Citic Securities was not optimistic about the current A-share market, so it turned to buy deposits.Personally, THIS event will still bring A “cold winter” signal to the whole A-share market. That is, in the short term, CITIC Securities cannot judge the performance of the whole A-share market in the first quarter of 2022, or it thinks there is A mismatch between the risks and benefits of the A-share equity market in the first quarter.Otherwise, it is impossible for securities companies to buy deposit products for a steady return of around two percent.Therefore, this also brings us as individual investors a signal of inspiration, the market in the first quarter of 2022 there is a high risk of volatility, it is better to take a defensive or conservative strategy, less or focus on banks and other big blue chip stocks.Reason has the following points: 1, the thought of overseas stocks by raising interest rates to A shares shall be within 5% of the influence of the adjustment, the results so far A shares in the performance of the whole in 1 ~ 2 months more than 10% of the band sex adjust, lead to public funds, private enforcement unwind on empty, triggered A small crisis once again, A number of well-known fund investors have popped the question.2. We thought the “water release” would bring encouraging news to the a-share market as A whole, but in fact, judging from the current trading data, many institutional investors seem to ignore the “water release” at all.The historical “no bear market” failed at least in January and the first half of February in 2022, again fueling panic across the market.3. At present, there are several common concerns: First, due to the epidemic, overseas exports recorded the largest annual growth in China’s GDP in 2021, but it will definitely not be as good as 2021.Second, real estate has entered the “black iron era” proposed by Vanke from the golden age and platinum age;Third, in the past 10 years, whenever the economy was in a bad state, we would build gay buildings. But under the circumstances that the basic construction is already under way, can the infrastructure construction in 2022 really drive economic growth?These are three questions that many people now take a pessimistic view of.So should it be conservative for the first quarter, or for 2022 as a whole?My answer is no.The reasons are as follows: 1. The three deposit products purchased by Citic Securities, the “first brother” of securities, are all short-term behaviors, with the longest maturity only 91 days, that is, 3 months. The two products that reached 5 billion yuan were purchased within 61 days, as shown in the figure below:From the above, citic Securities bought deposits in the whole term, most of the money is due in early April, which means they believe the A-share market should improve by the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.2. Believe in the state’s macroeconomic adjustment. In the face of the current more serious economic environment, the state will certainly take measures to stabilize the market, and the effect of the measures to stabilize the market is estimated to be about 2 months, so it also confirms that the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter will be a good investment opportunity.Conclusion: In 2022, the market may not be very good in the first quarter. There are investment opportunities in the second quarter, the third quarter and even the fourth quarter, especially in the second quarter, which is worth waiting for.